OECD predicts 2.7% area growth in 2010

The whole year growth for total OECD area is foreseen at 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.8 percent in the coming 2011, whereas euro area may record a growth of 1.2 percent in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011, the Paris-based OECD said Wednesday in its Economic Outlook.

The outlook confirmed impressive drive from emerging markets and accelerating growth in OECD area, however, it unlined that risks to the global recovery are higher now, given the impact of sovereign debts crisis and over-hearting in some emerging countries.

Positive signs are confirmed as rebound in trade, recovery in activity, bounced-back investment and restored household consumption, as spillover from growth in some areas could be "stronger than expected, especially in the United States and Japan," and "The overall economic environment is relatively auspicious," the OECD report said.

A relatively favorable indication is that the urge in unemployment has been smaller than previously initially, as OECD-wide unemployment rate peaked at 8.1 percent in 2009, but the labor market still lags behind the recovery, so that rate may reach 8.5 percent this year before decreasing to 8.2 percent in next year.

According to its estimation, the OECD area as a whole will witness 2.9 percent growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2010, with increase of 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent respectively in the following quarters to the end of this year.

New risks posing challenge for policy makers includes development in sovereign debt, the "first substantive risk," and overheating in emerging-market economies, OECD underlined in its report.

The instability generated from debt issue "has spread to other euro-area members and sovereign debt markets in other parts of the world," and stronger tightening of monetary policy need to "counter inflationary pressure and reduce the risk of asset-price bubbles" in some non-OECD members, the organization added.

Once again, the organization urged for immediate exit from fiscal stimulating packages and called on government to do it by 2011 at the latest. It recommending all countries to orient spending to innovation and education. "Fiscal consolidation must be designed and implemented to support growth to the extend possible."

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